Abstract

The main aim in this study is to explain the effect of natural resource endowment or ‘oil wealth’ on the Libyan economy and, more importantly, explore how Libya can take advantage of this resource whilst avoiding the Dutch disease problem. In order to do this, the study has three objectives:-

1.     To identify what variables are of importance in the economic growth in particular of oil producing countries, and what is the impact of oil on those variables.

2.     To identify the most important growth strategies that oil-rich countries are following.

3.     To identify the nature of the relationship between oil revenue and realizing permanent economic development in Libya, while identifying the most potentially beneficial economic development policies that could be adopted in Libya in terms of the participation of economic sectors, investment priorities, and encouragement of economic diversification.

Multiple methods were used to collect data in this research through information gathered from existing literature - data for a wide study of 74 oil producing countries, case studies on a number of oil rich comparator countries, as well as a qualitative analysis of the Libyan economy itself with data derived from semi-structured interviews and a focus group.

Preliminary results indicate that the abundance of oil wealth has a positive direct relationship on GDP; however economic growth is obstructed indirectly by oil wealth through the effect of some other economic variables within the model. For instance, an abundance of oil wealth negatively (statistically significantly) affects manufacturing, public spending on education and the entry of foreign direct investment; however, there is a positive (statistically not significant) relationship between oil wealth and each of agriculture value added and Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF). There is however a negative (statistically significant) relationship between SWF and GDP as well as a positive, statistically significant, relationship between the following variables: manufacturing value added, agriculture value added, and Foreign Direct Investment with GDP. The relationship is positive, but statistically not significant, between public spending on education and GDP.

In terms of the case study countries discussed, it can be recognized that different growth strategies have been adopted to reach economic diversification; in general all countries have increased their investment in education for all stages, in supporting the tourism sector and those manufacturing industries that link to oil and gas. However, the contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP for some oil-rich countries has diminished, even in those countries which have increased their efforts to support that sector. The main challenge facing those countries in terms of attracting more foreign direct investment is political and security stability. Countries consider SWF as an important way to diversify the economy, to achieve sustainable growth and to maximize profits.

In the specific context of Libya, this study reveals that it is facing a political Dutch disease as well an economic Dutch disease. Because of the size of the public sector, private sector activities were crowded out because of the ability of the government to dominate the economy through its large oil revenues. It is therefore a type of Dutch disease with a different scenario.

We consider a differentiated duopoly where firms invest in research and development (R&D) to reduce their production cost. The objective of this study is to derive and compare Bertrand and Cournot equilibria, and then examine the robustness of the literature's results, especially those of Qiu (1997). We find that The main results of this study are as follows: (a) Bertrand competition is more efficient if R&D productivity is low, industry spillovers are weak, or products are very different. (b) Cournot competition is more efficient if R&D productivity is high and R&D spillovers and products' degree of substitutability are not very small. (c) Cournot competition may lead to higher Outputs, higher consumer surpluses and lower prices, provided that R&D productivity is very high and spillovers and degree of substitutability of firms' products are moderate to high, (d) Cournot competition results in higher R&D Investments compared to Bertrand's. These results show that the relative efficiencies of Bertrand and Cournot equilibria are sensitive to the suggested specifications, and hence far from being robust.

We consider a differentiated duopoly where firms invest in research and development (R&D) to reduce their production cost. We show that if the firms play a one stage game, i.e., they choose R&D and price (in Bertrand game) or quantity (in Cournot game)at the same time, then the usual result stating that Bertrand competition is more efficient than Cournot competition still holds.

Using an infinite-horizon two-player differential game, we derive and compare Bertrand and Cournot equilibria for a differentiated duopoly engaging in the process of R&D competition. The main findings of this study are as follows. First, Bertrand competition is more efficient if either R&D productivity is low or products are very different. Second, Cournot competition is more efficient provided that R&D productivity is high, products are close substitutes, and spillovers are not close to zero. This last result is different from what has been obtained in the literature. Hence, this shows that considering a dynamic model and more general investment costs does have an impact on the efficiency results.